Social Web Prediction for the Next 5 Years: "Wing of Bat and Tail of Newt"

Forrester Research (the same people that brought us the Bubble in the 90s), today unveils its Five Eras of the Social Web.  Like most prognosticators, Forrester "expects the groundswell to continue."  Thanks, I thought it was just a passing fad.

Still, if I allow myself to stop being snarky, this is a good look at how the social media world is developing.  Suffice to say, any company still on the sideline needs to jump into the game.  HOWEVER, if you read the trend, it's not necessarily about how organizations interact with their target, but how they can become part of the interaction between individuals.  This is a very, very important distinction.

Take a look at the predicted The Five Eras of the Social Web: 

    1) Era of Social Relationships: People connect to others and share (ended in 2007)

    2) Era of Social Functionality: Social networks become like operating system (matures 2012)

    3) Era of Social Colonization: Every experience can now be social (matures 2011)

    4) Era of Social Context: Personalized and accurate content (matures 2012) 

    5) Era of Social Commerce: Communities define future products and services (matures 2013)

The advice:

1. Don’t Hesitate: These changes are coming at a rapid pace, and we’re in three of these eras by end of year. Brands should prepare by factoring in these eras into their near term plans. Don’t be left behind and let competitors connect with your community before you do.
2. Prepare For Transparency:  People will be able to surf the web with their friends, as a result you must have a plan.  Prepare for every web page and product to be reviewed by your customers and seen by prospects –even if you choose not to participate.  
3. Connect with Advocates: Focus on customer advocates, they will sway over prospects, and could defend against detractors. Their opinion is trusted more than yours, and when the power shifts to community, and they start to define what products should be, they become more important than ever.
4. Evolve your Enterprise Systems: Your enterprise systems will need to connect to the social web. Social networks and their partners are quickly becoming a source of customer information and lead generation beyond your CRM system.  CMS systems will need to inherit social features –pressure your vendors to offer this, or find a community platform.
5. Shatter your Corporate Website: In the most radical future, content will come to consumers –rather than them chasing it– prepare to fragment your corporate website and let it distribute to the social web. Let the most important information go and spread to communities where they exist; fish where the fish are.

Clearly, the most interesting advice is #6.  But don't get too worried just yet.  The idea that content will com from consumers reminds me a lot of the witches prophesies in Macbeth: true, but not exactly the way it seems on the surface.  If the social web has taught us anything, it's that consumer generated content is more often bad than good. I don't see giving it up to Johnny from Des Moines just yet.

To me it says that companies need to let go of their "everything on the corporate site" mentality. Instead, you need to generate great content that can help your target express themselves in their own online persona (I need to give Harry Gold at Overdrive Interactive credit on this phrase.)  People don't want to congregate on YourCompany.com.  Give them other places to find, explore and enjoy what you stand for.  They'll buy when the time comes, don't worry about that.

So, like the Great Birnam Wood coming the walls of Dunsinane, so too is it inevitable that social media is coming to your door.  Best to get moving now, or scramble for your sword later.